If you hold an FTX claim, you are sitting on something that has real value and a real problem. The value is the recovery the FTX Recovery Trust is paying out. The problem is that the recovery arrives slowly, in pieces, over a span of years — and for creditors in CIS countries, the path to actually receiving it has extra friction.
That sets up one decision: hold the claim and wait for the Trust, or sell it now and take cash at a discount. Neither answer is automatically right. It depends on the recovery you would be waiting for, the price you can sell at, and your own circumstances.
This guide lays out both sides honestly. It is not a pitch to sell. It is the comparison you should make before deciding either way.
What Waiting for the Trust Actually Gets You
The case for waiting is straightforward: the FTX recovery is unusually strong. Class 5A creditors have a projected recovery of around 96% of their allowed claim amount, and the projected total recovery across the estate is in the 118-120% range once interest and surplus are accounted for. By the standards of crypto bankruptcies, that is a good outcome.
There is an important detail in how that number is built. Recovery is calculated on the petition-date value of your assets — the value as of November 11, 2022 — not today's crypto prices. If the tokens you held have risen sharply since then, the dollar figure your claim is based on may be well below what those same assets would be worth now. The percentage is high; the base it applies to is fixed in the past.
The other catch is timing. The Trust does not pay in one lump sum. It pays through a sequence of distributions, released as tranches over an extended period. Approximately $9.3 billion has been distributed since January 2025, and further rounds continue, but the full process plays out across years. Waiting for the headline recovery means waiting through that whole schedule.
The CIS Catch: Jurisdiction and KYC
For a creditor in Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, or another CIS state, waiting carries a layer of risk that does not show up in the recovery percentage.
To receive a Trust distribution, you must clear Kroll KYC and have funds routed through a Distribution Service Provider such as BitGo, Kraken, or Payoneer. For CIS creditors this is where deals stall. KYC checks can be slow or rejected, and the providers have their own jurisdiction policies. A restricted-jurisdictions motion that would have complicated payouts to certain regions was withdrawn in November 2025 without prejudice — meaning the question was set aside, not permanently closed.
The practical point: the ~96% recovery is a projection of what the claim pays. It is not a guarantee that a specific creditor in a specific jurisdiction will receive every tranche smoothly. Waiting means accepting that uncertainty for the full duration of the distribution schedule.
What Selling Now Gets You
Selling converts the claim into cash today. Instead of waiting for the Trust, you sign a Sale and Assignment of Claim, the buyer settles you in USDT, and a Notice of Transfer is filed with Kroll under Rule 3001(e). The seller's payment follows the SAC's settlement terms, which is far faster than the Trust's staged distributions — our guide on FTX claim payment time covers that sequence in detail.
The trade is straightforward. You accept less than the full projected recovery, and in exchange you get three things: liquidity now, certainty of the amount, and a clean exit. On Qredax pricing, a clean Class 5A claim is bought in the 90-95% of face value range, with lower ranges for Class 7, KYC-stuck claims, and restricted-jurisdiction situations. The discount is the price of moving the wait and the risk off your shoulders.
That risk transfer is the part creditors often underweight. When you sell, the buyer takes on the multi-year distribution wait, the KYC and jurisdiction exposure, and any future dispute over the claim. Whatever happens to the schedule after the sale closes is no longer your problem.
Sell or Wait: A Side-by-Side Comparison
The two routes are easier to weigh next to each other.
| Factor | Wait for the Trust | Sell now |
|---|---|---|
| Headline amount | ~96% (Class 5A), projected total ~118-120% | A discount to face value |
| When you are paid | Staged tranches across years | Once, on the SAC's settlement terms |
| Certainty of outcome | Projection, not guaranteed for every creditor | Fixed amount agreed in writing |
| Jurisdiction / KYC risk | Carried by you for the full schedule | Transferred to the buyer |
| Effort required | KYC, provider setup, ongoing tracking | Sign the SAC, receive USDT |
| Exposure to future disputes | Remains with you | Passes to the buyer |
Read across the rows and the trade-off is clear. Waiting maximizes the headline amount. Selling maximizes speed, certainty, and the removal of risk. The right column is not better or worse than the left — it answers a different priority.
Time-Value: Money Now Against Money Later
A percentage on paper is not the same as money in hand. A recovery paid out over several years is worth less than the same total paid today, because money you hold now can be used, invested, or simply spent while money you are promised later cannot.
This is the honest core of the sell-or-wait question. The gap between a sale price and the full projected recovery is not pure loss — part of it is the time-value of getting paid years earlier, and part of it is the value of shedding the jurisdiction and dispute risk. Whether that trade is worth it depends entirely on how you weigh cash today against a larger sum spread across an uncertain multi-year schedule.
There is no formula that decides this for everyone. A creditor who can comfortably wait, has no KYC obstacle, and wants the maximum number leans toward holding. A creditor who needs liquidity, faces jurisdiction friction, or simply wants the matter closed leans toward selling.
Questions That Point to an Answer
Rather than a verdict, here are the questions that tend to settle the decision.
- Do you need the money in the near term? If yes, the multi-year distribution schedule is working against you, and a sale's immediate USDT settlement matters more than the headline percentage.
- How exposed is your jurisdiction? If KYC has been slow, has been rejected, or you are in a region the Distribution Service Providers treat cautiously, the ~96% projection is less reliable for you specifically.
- How much uncertainty can you hold? Waiting means living with an open position for years. If that weighs on you, certainty has real value.
- Is your claim clean? A clean Class 5A claim attracts the strongest offers. A disputed or KYC-stuck claim is priced lower — which can change the math in either direction.
- What is your time-value of money? If you have a productive use for cash now, getting paid years earlier can outweigh a higher number later.
If most of your answers point toward needing speed, certainty, or risk removal, selling is the rational choice. If you can wait comfortably and your jurisdiction path is clear, holding may capture more.
If You Decide to Sell
Choosing to sell does not commit you to anything until you sign. Requesting an offer is informational. You send the claim number, class, and jurisdiction; you receive a firm price; you compare that concrete number against the recovery you would be waiting for.
That comparison is the whole point. A projected percentage years out is abstract. A binding offer you can accept today is concrete. Seeing both side by side is the only way to make the sell-or-wait decision with real information rather than a guess — and getting a quote costs nothing and carries no obligation.
FAQ
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